Oil for Profits
I don't normally get involved in debates for two reasons:
1) I don't seem have the 'built-in' judgement to know when to stop, to allow an opponent the opening to retreat.
2) A lot of issues boil down to opinion - everyone has one consequently many debates devolve to agreeing to disagree. The problem is most people today aren't willing to leave it at that, instead positing that anyone who disagrees with them is either evil or suffering from a congenital mental defect.
Back to the topic at hand:
Much has been made in media recently of oil company profits. The reports quote huge dollar values, yet no attempt is made to place these in context.
For starters, lets disregard the total dollar value - the numbers for any multinational company are tremendous, no matter the industry, and can exceed the GNP of many small countries. Quoting the number value of the profit can be completely accurate, but reporting this without context of the investment costs and return is intentionally inflammatory.
To put this in context, these profits should be reported in terms of percent return on investment - ROI (which is one aspect of performance used by any financial manager to determine if/where to make their investments) ExxonMobil just managed to report an approximate 10% return, about the high end of the range for most oil companies.
How does that compare to other industries? Well the average ROI for pharmacutical companies comes in at around 20%, the banking industry at around 25 - 30%. Yet I don't see anyone picketing their pharmacy or their bank about excess profits.What does this mean? That ExxonMobil is not a high return investment, more of a slow growth, or long term investment since they are one of the few stocks that still pay dividends.
Going back to the dollar amounts - Exxon posted a approximate $10 billion dollar profit this quarter - do you have any idea on the required investment to turn that profit into a barely 10% rate of return? ExxonMobil's largest domestic offshore platform cost $1 billion in 2000 to build and put in place. BP's Thunder Horse project currently has a $1.5 billion price tag and climbing (and hasn't produced a drop of oil yet). And both of these are just single projects out of a large portfolio of exploration and production projects for both companies.
This also excludes the tremendous amount of damage suffered by production and refinery infrastructure that is still not completely repaired (and some will never be repaired). At one point there were only two production platforms in the entire Gulf of Mexico still making any production, of the hundreds that populate the region. Those repair costs have yet to be fully tabulated and have not yet hit most of the oil companies financial reports yet. The Minerals Management Service (the branch of the government responsible for regulating offshore production), in conjunction with the USCG, lists over 140 facilities in the Gulf of Mexico as hazards to navigation as a result of being destroyed/sunk by the one-two punch of Katrina/Rita.
Remember that exploration is just that, with far more dry holes drilled than productive wells. No other industry has to invest so much with such a significant chance of no return at all for the investment. The risk is so high, and the costs so great, that most projects today are a product of partnerships of the major oil companies. This is done to spread the risk around so that no one company is faced with an all or nothing investment, something that makes such projects economically impossible to justify otherwise.
As far as the oil price itself goes - the oil companies haven't ever had control of their pricing (actually the biggest single item of increase in gas at the pump has been taxes - which puts the focus on government). Price is set by market forces, primarily by the futures market, which is a bunch of investors (the same that set sugar, coffee, and other prices) by making committments to purchase/sell based on what they think the market will be in a few months time.
Nothing magic, nothing that companies can control - just a group of hyper people shouting at each other in the futures market pit.
The only thing that can reduce oil prices is to find more. Reducing demand domestically, while helpful, will have little impact. Why? Because of the rapid industrialization of India and China, which has made them major competitors with the US for world oil supply. This is the factor that has been driving oil prices up prior to the 2005 hurrricane season and is still the reason why the market reacts so violently (or over reacts) to events in the Middle East.
Despite this, the US remains one of the most hostile regulatory environments in which to attempt oil exploration and production - which seems suicidal for an economy that is so dependent on oil to grow and drive the rest of the world's economy.
Planned to Death is an article on
Human Events Online by Mac Johnson.
It is a story of our times and some the choices Western Society made. It also is an illustration of the Law of Unintended Consequences - in the case from the advent of the Pill. The Birth Control pill freed us as a species and as Western Civilization from the hard coded link between Sex and reproduction; now we could have it for just the pleasure without worrying about the pitter patter of little feet that might result.
The intent was to free women from the risk of abortions (which curiously enough have not declined, but increased), and to give women control of their reproductive choices. At least that was the rhetoric. Somewhere along the way, the message morphed into dismissiveness, if not out right disrespect of anyone/any woman who chose to have children. Even worse, a woman that chose to have more than one or two. This prejudice against "breeders" underlies most of the feministic rhetoric today.
The trouble with this con-game that was played out on women and against Western Society, it that it ultimately results in cultural suicide. Nature abhors a vacumn - if our culture and society do not fill the political power structure, then another will. At this point in time that would Radical Islam, or a choice of 'pick your flavor of the week' socialist/marxists tyrannies. Contrary to Western Culture (and what most of the left would have you believe), none of these societies/cultures holds the rights or interests of the individual (you) in much esteem. In fact, you as an individual have but one purpose in these cultures - support of the state.
Feminism isn't much of a seller either - Islam prefers them pregnant and dead from the neck up, or just dead if they trouble the husband/father too much. Misogynistic is the politest term that can be used to describe any of these cultures.
Ironically, the same con game that sold Western Civilization the Pill is directly responsible for the troubles (economic and societal) that both we and Europe face for our social welfare programs. While we didn't go as whole hog hedonistic as Europe with its dramatic negative population growths, we are still facing the same dilema a little delayed - we didn't maintain a population base sufficient to support/provide for the social programs we developed to support the needy/aged.
It is not too late for either America or Europe, but it would require a sea change in our cultures and a realization that not only had we lied to ourselves, but also that there is no free ride. If you are a fan of individuals rights and freedoms, then you must be a fan of Western Civilization. Despite of the PC talk of the left, and the rampant anti-Americanism across the world, this is the culture that made all the we hold dear possible.
Britian and Canda - more crime/violence than America?
Thats right, according to a Washington Times article, a survey/study done between October and December of 2005 found that both Britian and Canda have more crime and more violent crime than the US does (all though Canada leads by only a slim margin).
Read more about it
here.
Welfare Reform Reprised
Despite all the whining and crying that went on at time, both from my home state and at the federal level, welfare reform actually worked, and worked rather well. This can't be said of all government programs and their seemingly inevitable reform attempts, but it is so in this case.
I'm going to borrow a statement from an old US New & World report article that was about a different subject all together and apply it the welfare program and its impact on America. "If this had been imposed by an outside nation, it would have been considered an act of war...".
Specifically, if one were to deliberately attempt to design a system to destroy the value that had allowed the under priviliged and poor to survive everything that had ever been thrown at them up to the '60's, there could not have been a more effective program. And what is it that was attacked and almost completely destroyed? Two parent homes. The poor in America, both in the inner city sweat shops and in the rural area had survived and still managed to better themselves through drought, depressions, a civil war, two world war, discrimination, prejudice, and countless other hurdles. How? Because they, like most the rest of America, had a strong and stable core family and extended families. It may seem like a new discovery today, with recent research papers finally acknowleging what seems obvious to most - a strong family structure that includes two parents is critical in providing stabiliy and insuring a better life its members.
Liberals may make much of the exceptions where abuse and other factors make the family environment a nightmare, but this is just smoke and mirrors. By attempting to make the exception the rule, the real negative effects of single parent families is hidden and glossed over.
And that is what the welfare system as it was enacted created overwhelmingly. It also created a perpetual underclass, generational welfare recipients who have/had no concept of being self sufficient. Humans, like most animals, respond to a reward/punishment environment. Single parent families are/were rewarded at a higher financial level that two parent families and higher rewards were insured by have more children out of wedlock. The result - the core family structure that had been a core strength/virtue across all class lines was all but completely destroyed for the lowest/poorest portion of American society.
The welfare reform act of 1996 reversed over 30 years of the negative impact of welfare by promoting job training/work ethic and attempting to refocus welfare as a hand up and not a hand out. The expectations may have been too low, since the goals posts were all met allowing the 'workfare' requirements to cycle out. To restart this effort and keep the program moving forward, Congress just passed legislation designed to get the workfare program going again. Read more about it at the Heritage Foundation
here.
Challenger - 20 years later
It has been 20 years since the Challenger disaster. I remember exactly where I was and what I was doing when I first heard the news; I suspect many others can as well.
Dr. Sanity tells best - she was there...
All the news that's fit to print...
NOT!! This
report from the Media Research Center details what the Major New outlets aren't telling you.
Not that the media is biased - just ask them!
Treason...
I more than sick and tired of the obvious (and not so obvious) political pandering and anti-Bush sentiment that is now come to be a matter fact state of our major media outlets.
I don't want to get off on too much of a rant, but much of what is occurring would have been considered treason in WWII. The picture being presented to the public about Iraq is so far from the reality that our own troops are reporting that it makes one wonder how anyone could possibly believe that there would be no challenge to this. Which just demonstrates the absolute arrogance of the media.
I could point you to all the various milblogs and other sources of information that support a more positive view of the state of Iraq. Instead, I'll point you to this website for a think tank that has a research paper just released that pretty well summarizes the true current state of affairs.
http://www.heritage.org/Research/MiddleEast/wm932.cfm What you will find if you choose to research this independently, as I did, is that there is a lot of misrepresentation taking place (our grandparents called it lying, but I'm trying to be Politically Correct). Contrary to what is being reported, it is not the administration that is shading the truth but our major news outlets.
I don't pretend to know all the reasons for this, or why anyone would think that they are performing a public service by trying to cast our efforts in the most negative light possible. Part of it is, I think, a Watergate/Tet Offensive mindset, where everyone in journalism wants to be the next great expose'.
Another is the devolution of the Democratic left from ideas to ideology. Their ideal appears to be a world socialism; ignoring the reality of how brutal that is for the majority of people. It more of the Mommy state - don't trouble your heads, the state knows whats best for you, even if it kills you (as it has under Stalin, Khmer Rouge, N. Vietnam, N. Korea, etc.) Like Plato, I believe most of the intelligensia that makes up the left feel that they would naturally be part of the elite and thus exempt from the strictures that the realization of their ideology would place on the great mass of humanity. History tells us that this same intellgentsia is usually the first victim of suppression, but lets not let facts get in the way of the discussion.
Then there is the outright madness (or instigation of revolution) that is found at the Daily Kos and the Democratic Underground. I will not link to those sites, but suffice to say in their more rational moments they appear to be looking for/planning an armed uprising in the 2006 elections if the Democrats get their clocks cleaned again. What they wish would happen to our troops is beyond reason; what they show is the triumph of ideology over reality and reason.
Now that I've got that off my chest…
Merry Christmas!!
The True Meaning of Christmas
Much has been said and more will be said in the battle to remove Christianity and Christ from the Christmas season. Watching public media, one could justly come to conclusion that the entire year has been spent in preparation for a gigantic orgy of spending. But this is not the reason for the season...
No, the true meaning of Christmas is all together different and really has no dependence on the giving or receiving of gifts. It is the sentiment that those gifts are meant to symbolize that is so vastly important, a sentiment that should transcend religious and political intolerance.
If you are a Christian, then you believe that Christmas primarily celebrates the birth of Christ, the Son of God. Yet in addition to that Christian belief, is the sentiment of love, forgiveness, and sharing with our fellow men that this season also symbolizes. In its more ancient roots, this season celebrates life itself. You may, dependent on your personnel beliefs, agree or disagree about the nature of Jesus. That does not, and should not, prevent you from celebrating family, sharing, and love your fellow man as part of the season.
John Whitehead at the
Rutherford Institute says it far better than I can.
See his commentary here.Have a very Merry Christmas!!
Illegal Immigration - there is only one cure...
Illegal immigration is a topic that Democrats trot out when they want to seem that they really care about minorities and that Republicans not living on the border seem to prefer to ignore.
However you may feel about illegal immigration, the inability to control our own borders is a significant threat to our sovereignty. The nature of illegal's has changed significantly since my childhood. When I grew up, I believe that illegals (wetbacks in local parlance) were almost exclusively economic immigrants; in other words they were here to earn money they couldn't at home to keep their families from starving.
My grandfather, a small rancher, employed one or two and even had a 'regular' that returned each year to work in the summers for a while. It wasn't that my grandfather didn't want to hire local people to do the work needed, but that they wouldn't work since welfare was a much easier option. I remember riding with him in his truck to the corners where groups of young men sat around and asked them for any one that wanted a job. It never got far enough to discuss wages, the answer varied from a polite no sir, to angry stares and a negative shake of their heads. Never did I ever see one accept the job offer. Only then, would he contact some other ranchers in the area to see if they had any illegals that could be spared or were ready to move to another job.
This story points to the two fold cause of the immigrant problem:
- our welfare system was/is a positive economic inducement to not work, just as it is a destructive influence on families since it provides the an increasing economic inducement for out of wedlock children.
- Lack of criminalization for the hiring of illegal immigrants.
The second is perhaps the most pervasive and yet the easiest to fix. Its not that I would have wanted my grandfather to be arrested, but as long as there is no real and significant criminal risk to employers, there will always be a job market for illegals. As long as that persists, the draw will be there to subvert our borders.
Change the hiring of illegals to a criminal felony charge with a 5 - 10 year sentence and/or a $100k fine for a first time offence. Increment upwards for each offence, with a three strike rule for a third offence. And then rigorously enforce it by going after the high profile/high volume employers of illegals (Brown & Root comes to mind from my own experience). Dry up the job market, and the draw for economic immigrants will go away.
That still leaves criminal and political immigrants that may still try to come across. However, they depend in large part on the infra structure developed to support the economic immigrants. Again, dry up job market, and the infrastructure to support the other illegal immigrants will begin to break down.
As things currently stand, without serious criminalization of the hiring of illegals, the problem will remain unsolvable.
A side note on the story about my grandfather; there was one rancher that Grandad would always check with to try and provide a 'move to' job if he could. The reason? That man would wait until the work was just about completed, then call the INS and report himself so that they would come and pick them up and he wouldn't have to pay the last of their wages. As Grandad said, that man was just plain mean.
The Big Lie
When I was growing up, one of the topics that was covered in some detail was the run up to WWII, and social/political changes in Germany that allowed the Nazi party and then Hitler to assume so much power.
One of the methods discussed at length was that tactic called the Big Lie. The tactic is simple enough; a politically self serving and/or inflammatory statement is broadcast loudly, forcefully, and (most important) repeatedly. People are at first astonished by it, but then begin to assume that no one would possibly lie about something so outrageous, so easily disputed. The victims of such an attack often ignore the Big Lie, simply because the statements are usually so outrageously false. This allows the attack to continue uncontested, until doubt has begun to fester in the listeners. By this time, any belated defense can contrarily act to enforce the Big Lie, since others that had ignored the issue begin to listen, thinking where there is smoke there is fire.
We were told in school to be aware of this type of political demagoguery, that it had been used here as well, with McCarthy as the favorite example. People used this type of political attack to inflame people and quell/stifle debate, to hijack the political process for their own ends.
I believe we are seeing/have seen this type of politics practiced throughout most of Clinton's presidency, and now again by the far political left. The subject now is the 'quagmire' in Iraq and everything that is going wrong there.
Very little research is needed on the web to find that MSM's dismal picture of Iraq bears almost no relationship to reality there. James Phillips at the
Heritage Foundation presents a very complete and compelling
portrayal of how far from reality the current MSM mythos on Iraq is.
His research shows a completely different picture of Iraq than what is shown in most news programs and what is heard from our supposed leadership in the US Senate.
Please read it all and make up your own mind.
Who are they trying to kid...
I admit to having heard (and even given) some pretty lame explanations/excuses for different things over my life. However, this is ridiculous, just how stupid do they think people are.
What am I referning to? (Hat tip to
Yea, Right, Whatever) An American Arlines pilot reported an observed missle firing at his aircraft (complete with missle smoke trail) while departing LAX.
There has been no media coverage of this, and the FBI is attempting to pass this off as a bottle rocket or flare. At the time the jet was climbing and already out over the ocean.
First, I've made this flight/departure on an occasion or two, and no handheld flare or bottle rocket is going to be noticable or even visible to the pilot at that altitude and flight attidue/speed. Bottle rockets do good to reach a 100 feet in ideal conditions and their speed isn't a significant fraction of an airliner's, same for a hand held flare.
In one of the transgressions of my youth, some friends and I spent a holidy night chasing each other through town shooting bottle rockets and roman candles at each others cars. This called for some rather STUPID driving stunts to avoid hits (taking into account the entire thing was STUPID, but that was a long time ago in a different era). The thing is, that the bottle rockets were almost completely invisible until the exploded at the end of their run, invisible that is to a vehicle moving at any speed along their path. The roman candles/flare were much more noticible, as were their hits. In both cases, it wasn't really that difficult to avoid being struck unless the vehicle was stationary. Moving along the flight path of the rocket/flare, the relative speeds were not so great as to make avoidance too difficult, but it was exhilirating.
The point is, don't try to tell me that this was a bottle rocket or flare. At that point of departure, the aircraft should have already been over 1000 - 2000 ft agl, and climbing rapidly (usually a circling departure). No bottle rocket or hand held flare, is going to come close to reaching, much less overtaking a jet airliner as described.
So we have a binary solution set; either the pilot is a complete idiot, or the FBI is trying to hide that something significant occured. What is your pick?
No Sense of Humor, none at'all...
Have you ever had to spend any time around someone who took themselves (and everything else) too seriously? So seriously that everything was about them, a walking talking, chip on the shoulder, just waiting for an excuse to be insulted, prima donna?
Usually, you only see this for a brief (in retrospect) period during adolescence. I've always felt on of the hallmarks of both maturity and the wisdom that comes with it, is the willingnes to laugh at your self and your own foibles. Part and parcel to this is the realization, is the ability and willingness to admit your own fallibility and mistakes, in fact to admit them first and not try to hide them.
One of the stand out features of Islam, is its absolute unwillingness to admit any fallibility, and conversely, a complete lack of any sense of humor about anything. As a result everything is about them, and EVERYTHING is insulting. Hat tip again to
Atlas Shrugs, on this reward being offered from a group in Pakistan for the death of a cartoonist who dared to draw something about Islam that wasn't fawning and worshipful.
Boycott Marriott
Hat tip to Atlas Shrugs:
It seems that Marriott Corporation feels that allowing an anti-terrorist symposium to be held at their facilities to just too controversial and risky. However, its just fine for CAIR to hold an event at their facilities. Read all about it
here at Atlas Shrugs.
Is this the first case of coporate cave-in/intimidation by Islamic groups in the US? This is a dangerous trend on the road that Europe(Eurabia) has already followed.
