Light a Candle...

Strange Bedfellows...

According to a report from the Australian Broadcast Co., attacks against Shi'ite religous sites/events continue. It should come as no suprise that foreign backed Sunni extremists are bent on stopping the move toward Democracy in Iraq.

However, Iran can have no interest in the success of a Shi'ite majority based democracy in Iraq either. Success of this type puts to question Iran's own theocracy, already bent on supressing dissent within and attempting to distract internal strife by focusing their people on an external threat due to their nuclear program. I believe they would rather see Shi'ites that would move to democracy killed, and see a return to Sunni based tyranny, than see the current democratic trend succeed.

It should be plain to everyone (except possibly Sen's Kennedy, Kerry, and Boxer), that both Iran, and North Korea desparetly need an external enemy/threat to focus their people's dissatisfaction/dissent on. It is, afterall, a technique the Saudis and Egyptians have used to export their own trouble makers elsewhere.

Nuclear capability factual or not, both need to goad the US into some overt action that they can rally their people in defense against and distract them from the internal sources of their discontent. How far are they willing to carry this 'brinkmanship'? Remember, MAD is only as stable as the most insane participant. Both the mullahs and Kim must fear for their physical as well as idealogical survival if their people rise up, so how stable/sane will that make their decisions? (and they have such a strong hold on sanity already...)

China is not too far removed from this game, but plays it with more subtlety. Their courting of Venezuala and the old Soviet Communist satellite, Cuba is part of a larger, long term strategy. A political/economic 'rupture' between Venezuala and the US would have immediate and dire economic impacts here. Due to the leverage this link holds, China must view anything that would reduce our dependence on Venezualan oil with some alarm. Is it any wonder that China pursued influence (successfully) with the Clintons and the Democratic party? Can anyone really think that 'link' ended just because there is no longer a Democrat in the White House?

Then consider the ANWR question that has been debated for almost 20 years and ask your self who has the most to gain by not allowing controlled exploration to occur?

posted by Clayton @ 9:11 AM